Indian market is in strong bullish mode !

The market is exhibiting a strong bullish action.

Fake analysts may say the market goes up when there are more buyers than sellers and it goes down when there are more sellers than buyers. What matters more is the sentiment. It’s always a sentiment driven market. For example, way back in 2000 leadership stock like Infosys went down from 18000 to 2500 without trading a single stock. Even during 2020 many stock went down from filter to filter without much selling.  When sentiments are weak, stocks move down and when sentiments are strong they move up sharply. Look at the way Nvdia moved up from $108 to $400 when the whole US market was down on  recession. The AI sentiments supported sharp rally into the AI stocks. We should know to read the market conditions to take advantage of the volatility. Maybe it’s called as latent demand. We generally waste our valuable time to hear the fool’s noise in the media. Most people waste at least 6-7 hours in smart phone to lose money in the market. 

For those of you who are inquisitive to know the reasons behind the bullish nature of market, here are some : 

1. Monthly GST collections hitting roof high

2. Manufacturing PMI at 4 month high

3. Foreign reserves at 11 month high

4. GDP at 7.2%

5. Retail inflation at 18 month low

6. Exports surge at 14%

In reality,  market doesn’t require  any reason to move up or down.  Currently, slush of liquidity is chasing the market. Fund managers from all over the world are chasing Indian markets. A lot of money needs to be parked somewhere at least for some time - this is the reason for real estate prices to move up. One of my friends in Chennai  recently sold a home that has gained a 100% or more in the last 3 years! 

Another thing we need to understand is there are two different strata of life. As the wealthy become richer and the poor get poorer, the difference has increased. The rich are thriving and continue to spend and do well.  Look at the way the luxury cars segments like BMW/Benz/Bentley are growing at above average industry growth levels every year but the same is not true with the other segments. For example LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton, the world’s leading luxury goods group, had grown 25%. The lower income households continue to struggle, and MSME sector are currently battling for its survival. They want oxygen and if it’s not supplied most businesses will die. We see this in guidance from the likes of consumer goods. Their forward guidance is much more conservative than some of the higher-end categories which cater to rich individuals. I have been saying the same thing since  2021. 

Coming back to markets, I am not a big fan of technicals (like indicators) in my own investing. But I do check valuations when buying them down and I don’t look day to day market- only losers look at the market on daily basis. You have to check growing market shares, higher penetration, intelligent market moves by the promoters, inventories, competition and other stuff to win the market. I don’t listen to lunatic media analysts who with their own bias keep blabbering about the market. Even today there are many market analyst betting on HDFC and the likes. If you want to lose money keep hearing their predictions and be happy to join their losers club. The other way is to do your own analysis on the basis of the emerging leaders and join the rich man’s club. Always remember we can’t find daily or weekly or monthly picks to win the markets. Let me end the post with Warren Buffett’s quote “Opportunities come infrequently. When it rains gold, put out the bucket, not the thimble”